According to the recent TIM (Trade Ideas Monitor) report for the week of October 30-November 5, 2009, the TIM Sentiment Index (TSI) rose 5.65 points to 55.49, moving into bullish territory (see last week's post and the youDevise website for additional information on the TIM report, a reading above 50 is bullish). The TSI Worldwide Index also increased 7.55 points to a bullish 57.34 reading. Nine of the ten sectors were in bullish territory with only one bearish. Total new long ideas as a percentage of all new ideas sent to investment managers by way of the TIM increased 5.64 points to 73.20%.

As for individual securities in the U.S. and North America, Research In Motion (RIMM), US Steel (X), and Bank of America (BAC) were stocks with long broker sentiment, while Wells Fargo (WFC), and AMR Corp (AMR) had short broker sentiment. In general, the consumer discretionary, energy, and materials sectors had long broker sentiment, while the consumer staples had short broker sentiment.

According to the recent TIM (Trade Ideas Monitor) report for the week of October 23-29, 2009, the TIM Sentiment Index (TSI) is borderline bearish at 49.83, after the North American index fell 1.17 points (see last week's post and the youDevise website for additional information on the TIM report, a reading above 50 is bullish). The TSI Worldwide Index actually increased 1.76 points, but was also still just below the break-even point at 49.79 points. Four sectors were in bearish territory, four were neutral, and two were bullish. Total new long ideas as a percentage of all new ideas sent to investment managers by way of the TIM increased 2.15 points to 67.56%.

As for individual securities in the U.S. and North America, VF Corp (VFC), O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY), and First Solar (FSLR) were stocks with long broker sentiment, while Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Micron Technology (MU), and NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) had short broker sentiment. In general, the consumer staples and consumer discretionary sectors had long broker sentiment, while the energy, utility, and telecommunication sectors had short broker sentiment.

According to the recent TIM (Trade Ideas Monitor) report for the week of October 16-22, 2009, increased profit taking resulted in drops in market sentiment in the U.S., with the TIM Sentiment Index (TSI) was down 8.32 points in North America to a significantly lower, but still bullish 51.01 (see last week's post and the youDevise website for additional information on the TIM report, a reading above 50 is bullish). The TSI Worldwide Index was down 5.57 points, falling into bearish territory at 48.03. Eight sectors were in bearish territory, with two bullish. Total new long ideas as a percentage of all new ideas sent to investment managers by way of the TIM decreased 5.81 points to 65.41%.

As for individual securities in the U.S. and North America, Ingersoll-Rand (IR), Terex Corp (TEX), and Freeport McMoRan (FCX) were stocks with long broker sentiment, while Research In Motion (RIMM), Wyeth (WYE), and St. Jude Medical (STJ) had short broker sentiment. In general, the utilities and consumer staples sectors had long broker sentiment, while the information technology, health care, and energy sectors had short broker sentiment.

According to the recent TIM (Trade Ideas Monitor) report for the week of October 9-15, 2009, market sentiment in the U.S. became even more bullish. The TIM Sentiment Index (TSI) was up 3.87 points in North America to 59.32 (see the youDevise website for additional information on the TIM report). The TSI Worldwide Index was down 0.96, but remained bullish at 53.60 (a reading above 50 is bullish). Six sectors were bullish, while three were bearish and one was neutral. Total new long ideas as a percentage of all new ideas sent to investment managers by way of the TIM increased 2.69 points to 71.22%.

As for individual securities in the U.S. and North America, WW Grainer Inc (GWW), O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY), and Pfizer (PFE) were stocks with long broker sentiment, while Chesapeake Energy (CHK) and Safeway (SWY) had short broker sentiment. In general, the information technology, financial, and energy sectors had long broker sentiment, while the utilities had short broker sentiment.

According to the recent TIM (Trade Ideas Monitor) report for the week of September 25 - October 1, 2009, market sentiment became more bullish. The TIM Sentiment Index (TSI) was up 2.11 points in North America to 53.16 (see previous post and the youDevise website for additional information on the TIM report). The TSI Worldwide Index was also up, increasing 3.83 points to 51.42. Six sectors were bullish, while three were bearish and one was neutral. Total new long ideas as a percentage of all new ideas sent to investment managers by way of the TIM increased 3.50 points to 65.55%.

As for individual securities in the U.S. and North America, Penske Automotive Group (PAG), Bally Technologies (BYI), and Check Point Software Technologies (CHKP) were stocks with long broker sentiment, while MGM Mirage (MGM) and Citrix Systems (CTXS) had short broker sentiment. In general, the consumer staples, financial, and telecommunications sectors had long broker sentiment, while the utilities, health care, and industrial sectors had short broker sentiment.

According to the recent TIM (Trade Ideas Monitor) report for the week of September 18-24, 2009, bullish broker sentiment continued to decrease. The TIM Sentiment Index (TSI) was down 1.74 points in North America to 51.05, slightly bullish (see previous post and the youDevise website for additional information on the TIM report). The TSI Worldwide Index was down 5.14 points to 47.58. Total new long ideas as a percentage of all new ideas sent to investment managers by way of the TIM decreased 6.31 points to 62.05%.

As for individual securities in the U.S. and North America, King Pharmaceuticals (KG), American International Group (AIG), and E*Trade Financial (ETFC) were stocks with long broker sentiment, while YUM Brands (YUM), MetroPCS Communications (PCS), and AK Steel Holdings (AKS) had short broker sentiment. In general, the information technology, health care, and financial sectors had long broker sentiment, while the materials and utilities sectors had short broker sentiment.

First Coverage's weekly market sentiment report is still pointing to a bullish market (First Coverage). This week has seven sectors rated bullish, with three, including basic materials, consumer goods, and energy (oil and gas) rated neutral. The weekly sentiment change has basic materials moving more bearish from last week with a 10.9% decline in sentiment (although still neutral), while health care has become more bullish. The financial sector has also failed to roll over, indicating that the sell-side has still not yet gone bearish, even with the big run-up in this sector over the last six months. Stocks generating the greatest bullish sentiment shifts include Thoratec (THOR), ConAgra Foods (CAG), Potash (POT), Dell (DELL), and Netflix (NFLX). Those stocks generating the greatest bearish sentiment shift include Vulcan Materials (VMC), Bio Ref Labs (BRLI), Iteration Energy (ITX), Bill Barrett (BBG), and PNC Financial Services (PNC).

Global X Funds has filed a prospectus with the SEC to offer six new ETFs that will be designed to follow six different sectors within the Chinese economy (IndexUniverse). The six sectors/categories include consumer, energy, financial, industrial, material, and technology. The plan is for the funds to be 80% invested in ADRs and Global Depository Receipts, with the remaining 20% invested in swaps and various options contracts. The fund hopes to replicate the underlying FTSE sector-specific indexes with a 95% accuracy after fees and expenses. While there are many funds that follow the broader Chinese economy, the new ETFs will be some of the first to allow investors to focus on a specific sector within this region. The fact that such sector-specific ETFs are being offered for the Chinese economy also tells you something about demand and interest for investing more directly within this growing and increasing influential market.

Quant funds who bet on high-quality stocks, while at the same time shorting those stocks that are over-priced, have been under-performing the stock market (WSJ). This under-performance has come in part as a result of poor balance sheet stocks being pulled along by the momentum train of the last few months. The performance gap has even widening recently as short squeezes have pushed weak stocks higher, just as those with brighter prospects have done worse. Some feel that the under-performance of higher quality stocks may be an indication that the recent move is running out of steam, and that the market may be due for a correction. Breadth and other overbought/oversold indicators continue to flirt at times with high levels and cause concern among the bulls - but then again, they did so one month ago as well. Nonetheless, a correction, even if mild and short-term, could be in the cards as it seems an increasing number of participants have started watching and waiting for their overbought biases to be confirmed, including some of those who continue to be long in the market. Time will tell, but the next month could be interesting, and telling, as we move into October.

Moody's issued a special comment paper focusing on Basel II amendments already introduced, as well as statements from the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (Risk.net). The paper highlights enhancements relating to a bank's trading book, securitization, and counterparty credit risk. In particular, the recommendations involve strengthening Tier I capital, introducing tougher liquidity standards, including counter-cyclical provisioning, discussing systemic risk provisions (which is becoming popular in the United States), and including leverage ratios as a supplementary measure. Moody's also believes that proposed Capital Requirement Directive changes to the quality of capital and securitization were also a positive step. In addition, the paper mentions that “One important amendment calls for stricter operational requirements for credit analysis for banks holding securitisation exposures. We believe that the increased requirement for credit analysis for banks holding securitised exposures is going to be an important element of improved risk management, and should ensure that only banks with the necessary information and analytical tools hold securitised products.” Of course, it could also mean that less securitization takes place. While this may be the intended result, the unintended consequence of reducing the efficient flow of capital, or not allowing those who want to off-load or bear risk access to the vehicles they need, will also need to be considered further - either now or later.

State Street Global Advisors launched a new ETF with investments in non-convertible preferred stocks (ticker PSK, IndexUniverse). Similar ETFs already on the market, PGX and PFF, are up 20% and 33% YTD, respectively. The preferred shares in the fund are rated investment grade and have minimum trading volume requirements. The ETF has an expense ratio of 0.45%. The PSK exchanged traded fund would be attractive to investors that are looking for income, potential capital gains growth, and safety given that preferred shares pay a fixed dividend, can appreciate like normal common stock, and are higher on the food chain compared to common stock in the event of bankruptcy.

According to the recent TIM (Trade Ideas Monitor) report for the week of September 11-17, 2009, market sentiment moderated after being bullish last week. The TIM Sentiment Index (TSI) was down 1.86 points in North America to 52.78 (see previous post and the youDevise website for additional information on the TIM report). The TSI Worldwide Index was down 3.89 points to 52.72. Total new long ideas as a percentage of all new ideas sent to investment managers by way of the TIM decreased 0.86 points to 68.36%.

As for individual securities in the U.S. and North America, DryShips (DRYS), Kroger (KR), and U.S. Steel (X) were stocks with long broker sentiment, while Sprint Nextel (S), American International Group (AIG), and Goldman Sachs (GS) had short broker sentiment. In general, the utility, energy, and consumer staples sectors had long broker sentiment, while the information technology sector had short broker sentiment.

Hedge funds increased their stakes in financial stocks during the second quarter according to the Goldman Sachs Hedge Fund Trend Monitor (WSJ). Specifically, ownership in financials increased 55% from Q1 to Q2, growing to $70 billion - representing 3.7% of the sector's market capitalization. Bank of America (BAC) and JPMorgan (JPM) were some of the more popular financial holdings within hedge funds, with Regions Financial (RF) and Citigroup (C) also becoming new long positions for some funds. While the net short position of financials also rose slightly, 8% to $63 billion, the large increase in long exposure has resulted in hedge funds being net long the financials by the end of Q2 (WSJ). Although hedge fund redemption request have decreased, reducing the need for forced selling, it is unclear if hedge funds on average will maintain their net long positions in financials after the nice run these stocks have made since the March market lows.

According to the recent TIM (Trade Ideas Monitor) report for August 20th, the TIM Sentiment Index (TSI) in North America was 50.37, down 1.76 points, right near the critical 50 mark (see last post, and previous post and the youDevise website for additional information on the TIM report). The TSI Worldwide Index was down marginally. Total new long ideas as a percentage of all new ideas sent to investment managers by way of the TIM decreased 3.15 points to 62.53%.

As for individual securities in the U.S. and North America, Medidata Solutions (MDSO), BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ), and Alcoa (AA) were stocks with long broker sentiment, while First Solar (FSLR), Brocade Communications (BRCD), and Las Vegas Sands (LVS) had short broker sentiment. In general, the materials, telecommunication services, and energy sectors had long broker sentiment, while the consumer staples, industrials, and consumer discretionary sectors had short broker sentiment.

The tremendous growth of the Chinese economy and stock market has many wondering how long it will take before China once again regains it spot as the top economy (The Business Insider). When looking at purchasing power parity, some analysts are expecting that China will regain the crown as the top economy by 2015, after 125 years of the U.S. holding the number one spot. Yet for China and any other global market or economy to be a long-term destination for investment, further transparency and disclosure will no doubt be necessary. Just yesterday I discussed some recent academic research that found investors tend to trade foreign equities more often than their domestic counterparts (Bull Bear Trader). In short, the authors of the study found that the level of trading is higher for stocks in markets for which there are weaker investor protections, or for markets that have lower disclosure standards. The portfolio turnover or churn rate was higher as the quality of information and level of familiarity decreased.

This information appears to not be lost on some international markets. Wealth Briefing Asia reports that as investor look across the globe for alternative investments, they will demand more in-depth information on investment products in the wake of the recent financial crisis. To meet this need, services are already being offered to help investors discover transparent managers, and regulatory bodies are increasing requirements for transparency within various markets. Both the demand and the will seem to be in place, yet more will have to be done, with such transparency continuing down to the company level as investor seek assurances regarding future investments. This is happening in Japan, where after two decades of poor returns, Japanese investors are beginning to challenge management teams that are not delivering for shareholders (Financial Times).

Therefore, as investors continue to look for alternative investments and ways to diversify globally, international markets will need to increase transparency as the economic links between the U.S., China, Japan, Europe, Brazil, India, and Russia, among others, continue to grow. In doing so, markets will be able to lower equity turnover rates (Bull Bear Trader), thereby reducing volatility and allowing them to attract the type of long-term investment and capital necessary to grow their markets. Whether China continues to rises to the level of market leadership is still to be seen, but even if the U.S. retains it top position, a more transparent market in China and elsewhere will help all markets given that full decoupling has not happen, and will most likely never fully occur in the new global market place.

There has been significant research in the past looking at the phenomenon of "home bias," or investing a larger portion of your wealth in a domestic market, despite the benefits of increasing international diversification. Less research has been done on how these home bias investors rebalance between domestic and foreign exposure. Previous research has also produced somewhat conflicting data regarding foreign equity turnover rates, ranking them from having only slightly faster levels of turnover, to foreign equity turnover rates 10 times greater domestic equity turnover rates - although in many cases the data samples were limited to just a handful of countries.

Recent research by Kalok Chan and Vicentiu Covrig examined portfolio rebalancing as measured by the churn rate of mutual funds from 29 different domestic countries - with investments across 48 foreign countries (see their paper, "What Determines Mutual Funds' Trading in Foreign Stocks?"). The results were based on annual holdings of stocks from the years 1999-2004, with churn rates based on changes of equity holdings in consecutive years. Based on past research, it was not surprising that their results found that the level of stock trading is more active for the stocks of companies in less developed countries. In fact, the trading of mutual funds in foreign stocks was higher than for domestic stocks in 24 out of 29 countries. When digging deeper to determine the reasons for the increased turnover rates, the authors found that the level of trading is higher for stocks in markets for which there are weaker investor protections, or for markets that have lower disclosure standards. In general, the churn rate was higher as the quality of information and level of familiarity decreased. The authors found these results to:

".... be consistent with the hypothesis that the investors rebalance more often the holdings of stocks about which they know less and are less familiar with."

As might also be expected, the churn rate was higher in a foreign market if the market had performed well, with the rate increasing as the level of familiarity decreases. Similar to other markets, it seems that investors are likely to take profits after a market has run-up, and are much more likely to do so if the market is foreign, less transparent, and has a lower level of familiarity.

In their research paper "The Value of Enterprise Risk Management," Robert Hoyt and Andre Liebenberg attempt to uncover whether there is firm value in implementing Enterprise Risk Management (ERM). As the authors discuss, ERM has generated considerable interest from the media in recent years as organizations begin implemented enterprise-level risk management programs, and consulting firms and universities look for ways to offer support, guidance, courses, and services related to ERM. Rating agencies have also begun to consider ERM in the rating process, and regulators are taking notice. The ideas of enterprise and system-wide "systemic" risk are also now being given serious consideration at the economic system level.

Put simply, ERM is focused on the idea that instead of managing and examining individual and separately managed silos of risk, firms are now looking at managing risk in a more integrated, enterprise-wide fashion. It is believe that doing so will help to avoid duplication of risk management expenses by exploiting natural hedges, and allow firms to better understand the aggregate risk. ERM programs also have the benefit of allowing firms to better inform outsiders (investors, regulators) of their risk profile, compared to firms that are more operationally complex. It is expected that such added visibility has the benefit of decreasing earnings and stock price volatility, increasing capital efficiency, and increasing enterprise risk awareness - allowing for more holistic operational and strategic decision-making. But enough flowery language. Does it work, and will it increase shareholder wealth?

[Note: I have offered university-level ERM courses in the past, and will do so again in the near future. Unfortunately, up until now there has not been an empirical study regarding the impact of ERM programs on firm value. Needless to say, I was interested in the results of the research.]

First, a little research background. For the study, the authors focused their attention on U.S. insurers in order to control for regulatory and market differences across industries. Financial institutions and insurers have been some of the first industries to adopt ERM, so this focus makes sense. Without going into further specifics of their modeling and analysis (please refer to the paper), the authors found:

"ERM usage to be positively related to factors such as firm size and institutional ownership, and negatively related to reinsurance use, leverage, and asset opacity. By focusing on publicly-traded insurers we are able to estimate the effect of ERM on Tobin’s Q, a standard proxy for firm value. We find a positive relation between firm value and the use of ERM."

In fact, beyond just adding value, the ERM premium was 16.5%, and found to be both statistically and economically significant, as well as being robust to a range of alternative specifications of both the ERM and value equations. In summary, it appears that added risk management disclosures inherent in ERM add value to the firm. As a bonus, by adding additional risk management transparency, firms are likely to reduce the expected cost of regulatory review, along with the amount risk capital that is allocated for less productive/profitable uses, each of which no doubts helps to increase firm value. Certainly something the proponents of ERM believed, but now there is some initial evidence to back up the claims - at least for insurance companies.

Of course, as investors, knowing that ERM adds value to a firm is good, but now it is necessary to determine which firms are in fact using ERM. Even the authors mention that identifying firms engaging in ERM is a challenge. Nonetheless, absent official disclosures, a search of financial reports and news wires (as performed by the authors) can help to locate candidates for study. Even with relatively strict filtering of data, the researchers were able to identify 117 out of 275 insurance firms that met the requirements of being classified as firms engaging in some type of ERM. As regulators begin to require additional transparency regarding risk management activities, such identification will become easier, and hopefully profitable to investors.

According to the recent TIM (Trade Ideas Monitor) report for August 13th, the TIM Sentiment Index (TSI) in North America was 52.13, down 2.42 points, but still over the critical 50 mark (see last post, and previous post and the youDevise website for additional information on the TIM report). The TSI Worldwide Index averaged 53.40. Total new long ideas as a percentage of all new ideas sent to investment managers by way of the TIM remained high at 65.68%, but down slightly.

As for individual securities in the U.S. and North America, Cbeyond (CBEY), TW Telecom (TWTC), and Williams-Sonoma (WSM) were stocks with long broker sentiment, while Allegiant Travel (ALGT), Tellabs (TLAB), and Arch Coal (ACI) had short broker sentiment. In general, the utility, telecommunication, and consumer staples sectors had long broker sentiment, while the financial, material, and consumer discretionary sectors had short broker sentiment.

Below are some links of interest for 8/14/09, just in case you missed them. Some have already been posted to Twitter.

• U.S. foreclosure activity hits a new record in July, increasing 7% from June and 32% for the year (Financial Times). The increase is being blamed in part on a lifting of previous foreclosure moratoriums.

• Retail sales fell 0.1% in July, even with the Cash for Clunkers program being considered - although August may include more data (WSJ). There were large declines in housing-related retailers and electronic stores. Stripping out autos, retail sales dropped 0.6%. Yet, there were some gains. Auto and parts sales increased 2.4% in July. In addition to autos, health and personal care stores, restaurants and bars, clothing, and mail order and Internet retailers were also up.

• The Federal Reserve plans to conclude its purchases of $300 billion in U.S. Government debt by the end of October (WSJ), in what may be both an admission that the Fed believes that the worst is over, and also a way to begin allowing long-term rates to move up, even as it plans to keep short-term rates near zero for the foreseeable future.

• Unemployment duration just keeps getting longer, even in good times (The Financial Ninja). This is increasing the need to emergency unemployment compensation (second The Financial Ninja article).

• Hotel occupancy fell 7.5% to end the week at 65.9%. RevPAR (Revenue per available room) for the week decreased 16.5% (Calculated Risk). Given that peak travel time is passing us by, this is not good news.

• When looking at quarterly report for Regions Financial, one wonders if the company is insolvent, even though the government says it is well capitalized (Bloomberg). Of course, that has not stopped investors from valuing the company near $6 billion. Meanwhile, looking at CDS market, 5-year protection written on Region's tier-2 debt is trading at spreads of 722bp over swaps (Reuters - Felix Salmon). What this implies (to Salmon) is "that bonds are the new stocks, and stocks are the new call options." Bonds are now giving you a high return for high risk. On the other hand, stocks run the risk of being wiped out entirely in return for the leveraged possibility that your investment could multiply in value in a matter of months. Of course, none of this seems to bother the stock or its investors. In the face of the Bloomberg story, the stock was up 7.9% Thursday, along with a 3.1% increase in the KBW Bank Index - much to the amazement of Michael Panzner (Financial Armageddon).
  

• Weak retail sales data caused an early correction in the futures market Thursday morning, but the market still rallied back on essentially no news (The Pragmatic Capitalist). This comes as rail data was also weak (second The Pragmatic Capitalist article). Is the market resilient or complacent? Is the move just short-covering and/or hedge fund managers trying not to get left behind?

• Based on available trading data, there seems to be a disconnect in short interest volume readings. The BATS short volume reading is accounting for over 46% of total volume, much more than the short interest data disclosed by the NYSE and Nasdaq ( Zero Hedge).
  

• Bespoke Investment Group has a list of the most heavily and least heavily shorted Russell 1,000 stocks. Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), and not surprisingly, AIG, top the most shorted list. CMG is still up 46.35% YTD. Of interest is that the average 2009 change for the most heavily shorted stocks, i.e., more than 20% of float, is 26.23%, almost double the gain for the overall market.
  

• In general, as the market has been moving up, the short interest ratio on the S&P 500 has been dropping, signaling a possible topping formation (The Disciplined Investor).
  

• The Pragmatic Capitalist worries that a weak hurricane season could cause crude oil prices to fall, dragging the stock market with it.

• The Coppock Curve technical indicator is continuing to rise and act bullish (Trader's Narrative). Then again, the S&P 500 would have to fall 200 points below 780 for the curve to stop climbing, so we could get the much talked about August/September correction before continuing to move higher later in the year, as some are expecting.
  

• The ratio of insider buying to selling transactions is 10 to 136 ($60.1 million buys to $1,146 million sells). There have been over $2.1 billion in insider sales over the last two weeks (Zero Hedge).

• Looking at inter-market returns YTD, crude oil is the best performer in 2009 - up almost 60%, followed by the Nasdaq - up 27% YTD, and the CRB Commodity Index - up 15% YTD (Afraid to Trade). The S&P 500 has risen 11% during the same period.

• In what seems to be daily hedge fund data, the Financial Times takes its turn reporting how traditional strategies such as equity long-short and convertible arbitrage continue to be the best hedge fund strategies for the year. Emerging market and fixed income arbitrage strategies are also doing well. Dedicated short sellers, not surprisingly, are getting killed. As the market continues to trend, black-box commodity trading advisers (managed futures) are once again generating interest after what has been a difficult year (Reuters). Anyone seen a SuperFund commercial lately?
  

• Looking at a recent 13-F, the John Paulson portfolio is heavily weighted towards three sectors: gold, financial stocks, and health care (The Pragmatic Capitalist). This basically results in three bets on seemingly different macro themes, possibly betting on re-inflation (gold, health care), while at the same time speculating on a recovery (banks).

• Researchers Mokoaleli-Mokoteli, Taffler, and Agarwal test whether sell-side analysts are prone to behavioral errors when making stock recommendations, as well as the impact of their investment banking relationships on judgment. The authors find that new buy recommendations on average have no investment value, whereas new sell recommendations do have value, although it takes time for the information to be assimilated by the market. Interesting research, and somewhat intuitive - or at least it should be. It looks like buy recommendations involve selling, and sell recommendations involve selling, ......., just different kinds (Bull Bear Trader).
  

• The MarketSci blog provides a nice breakdown of the quant analysis blogosphere into three components - situational analysis, mechanical strategies, and academic thinkers - and provides references for each.
  

• New Morningstar 5-star stock: SunPower Corporation (SPWRA).

In their paper "Behavioural Bias and Conflicts of Interest in Analyst Stock Recommendations," Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, authors Mokoaleli-Mokoteli, Taffler, and Agarwal tests whether sell-side analysts are prone to behavioral errors when making stock recommendations, as well as the impact of their investment banking relationships on judgment. The authors find that new buy recommendations on average have no investment value, whereas new sell recommendations do have value, although it takes time for the information to be assimilated by the market. They also find that new buy recommendations are distinguished from new sells both by the level of analyst optimism and conflicts of interest (no surprise there). Of interest, successful new buy recommendations are characterized by lower prior returns, while successful new sells do not differ from their unsuccessful counterparts in terms of these measures.

Interesting research, and somewhat intuitive - or at least it should be. New buy recommendations involve selling, and sell recommendations involve selling, ......., just a different kind.