As a result of high prices, new reserve finds, and better technology, natural gas production in the US is up 8% this year, with growth expected to continue as new wells come on-line in Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana, and new reserves are scheduled to be taped in Appalachia and Canada (see WSJ article). Unfortunately for the natural gas companies, demand is not growing as fast, up only 5.5% - the Pickens Plan notwithstanding. US LGN import have already been down given the higher prices paid in Asia and Europe which have caused shipments to be diverted (see previous post). As long as production in the US stays high, with reduced avenues for exports and steady demand at home, prices will be pressured to fall. Then again, we may be getting near a tipping point as prices approach $8 per million BTU, a point that analysts believe producers will cut production, with the tighter supply driving prices back up in a form of a self-correcting mechanism.

Even with short-term corrections, longer-term price pressure will most likely come from new discoveries of shale, the dense rock formations that have been known to hold natural gas, but for which production had been impractical due to the rock not being porous enough for gas flow. However, technology came to the rescue in the form of using pressurized water to crack the shale and release the gas. The technique is working in the Barnett Shale in Texas and can be used in the Haynesville Shale in Louisiana and Texas, as well as the Marcellus Shale in Appalachia. Altogether, US shale could hold as much as 840 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Astonishingly, this estimate is equivalent to 140 billion barrels of oil, or more than half the proven reserves of Saudi Arabia. While none of this natural gas will be coming on-line overnight, it certainly seems promising for helping supply some of the clean energy needs of the US going forward. Unfortunately, unless the natural gas companies, T. Boone Pickens, and others can convince Congress of this benefit, it may be a while before demand catches up to production. As a result, Chesapeake Energy (CHK), XTO Energy (XTO), and EOG Resouces (EOG) may have to wait for real price appreciation, or to see the benefits of the massive investments each has been making to tap into the shale reserves.

As a general rule of thumb, crude oil has traditionally traded at a 7-8 multiple to natural gas, or put another way, natural gas trades at a 7-8 times discount to crude. With May crude contracts hitting $116.69 a barrel, and May natural gas contracts at $10.587 mmBtu, is the traditional 7-8 crude oil to natural gas multiple breaking down, or will we see a correction soon? Given the current price of crude, natural gas should be trading somewhere in the range of $14.586 to $16.670. Does this make natural gas a possible trade? It depends on two things. First, do you believe the crude oil / natural gas multiple is valid during a period of increased volatility? Second, will crude continue its march to $120 and beyond, or at least stay above $100 per barrel. Given the beginning of the summer driving season, and the published supply and demand constraints, a price for crude staying over $100 a barrel through the summer seems possible. Even at $100, natural gas should approach $12.5 mmBtu on the low end with the 8 multiple. Recent natural gas finds will add some relief, but this supply will take a while to materialize. Increased use of natural gas to fuel power plants, driven by both environmental concerns with coal and safety concerns with nuclear (both interesting plays in and of themselves), will put further pressures on natural gas supply.

While futures are a natural position, many traders have a bias or preference for equities. Fortunately, numerous stocks with natural gas exposure exist, many of which also include exposure to crude oil. A few of interest including the following:

Anadarko (APC, $68.90, P/E 8.53, Market Cap 32.25B): Involved in exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas, with proved reserves of 8.5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. The company is buying back shares and paying down debt, with the stock price currently in an up trend.

Apache (APA, $142.51, P/E 16.99, Market Cap 47.45B): An independent energy company engaging in exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas, with proved reserves of 14.7 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. The company has a dependent on crude oil prices more than some purer plays, even beyond any multiples. The stock is currently in an up trend.

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ, $84.50, P/E 17.70, Market Cap 45.65B): The second largest oil and natural gas producer in Canada with proved reserves of 3.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Operating expenses have been a worry, and the stock is strongly levered to oil in addition to natural gas. The stock is currently hitting upper resistance, with a potential double top.

Chesapeake Energy (CHK, $50.39, P/E 19.23, Market Cap 25.90B) An oil and natural gas exploration and production company with 10.879 trillion cubic feed equivalent of proved reserves. As discussed before, Chesapeake Energy is the second largest independent producer of natural gas in the U.S., and recently announced new natural gas discoveries. The company is expecting output increases of 21% this year, and 16% next year. The CEO, Aubrey McClendon, is also increasing his position in the company, purchasing another 1.5 million shares recently, raising his stock total to $1.2 billion. He also recently stated how the impact of the Fayetteville Shale could total $18 billion over the coming decade. Obviously, he believes the natural gas story, as well as his company's prospects. The stock is in an up trend.

Devon Energy Corporation (DVN, $118.40, P/E 14.82, Market Cap 52.62B): Involved in exploration, development, production, and transport of oil and natural gas with proved natural gas reserves of 8,994 billion cubic feet and 321 million barrels of natural gas liquids. Recently, the stock is in a strong up trend.

El Paso Corporation (EP, $17.62, P/E 11.48, Market Cap 12.35B): A natural gas exploration, production and transmission operations company, with an estimated 2.9 trillion cubic feet of natural gas equivalents of proved natural gas and oil reserves. The stock is nearing overhead resistance.

Encana Corporation (ECA, $86.23, P/E 16.65, Market Cap 64.69B): Exploration, production, and marketing of natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids. Largest natural gas producer in Canada with 13.3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. The stock is in an up trend.

EOG Resources (EOG, $134.17, P/E 30.67, Market Cap 33.14B): Exploration, production, and marketing of natural gas and crude oil, with estimated net proved reserves of 6,669 billion cubic feet of natural gas. The stock is in a strong up trend.

Equitable Resources (EQT, $67.96, P/E 32.42, Market Cap 8.30B): Equitable operates an integrated energy company in the Appalachian area, with natural gas production, distribution, and transportation activities, with approximately 2,682 billions of cubic feet equivalent of natural gas. EQT is in a recent up trend.

Noble Energy (NBL, $90.55, P/E 16.63, Market Cap 15.56B): Involved in exploration, development, production, and marketing of crude oil and natural gas in the U.S., with proved reserves of 3.3 trillion cubic feet. The stock is in an up trend after recently coming out of a trading range.

Petroleum Development Corporation (PETD, $77.14, P/E 34.47, Market Cap 1.15B): Involved in acquisition, development, production, and marketing with proved reserves of 593,563 million cubic feet of natural gas. The stock is in an up trend.

Quicksilver Resources (KWK, $41.48, P/E 14.48, Market Cap 6.57B): Independent energy company engaging in acquisition, exploration, production, and sale of natural gas, natural gas liquids, and crude oil, with proved reserves of 1.5 trillion cubic feet equivalents of natural gas. The stock is in an up trend.

Range Resources Corporation (RRC, $71.60, P/E 46.55, Market Cap 10.73B): Involved in exploration, development, and acquisition of oil and gas properties, with approximately 1,125,410 million cubic feet of natural gas reserves. The stock is in an up trend.

XTO Energy (XTO, $67.57, P/E 19.14, Market Cap 34.48B): Company involved in acquisition, development, and exploitation of natural gas properties, with proved reserves of 6.94 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Recently agreed to pay $600 million for Linn Energy. The company also recently priced $2 billion in senior notes. The stock is currently in an up trend.

From the list, APC, APA, CNQ, CHK, ECA, EQT, and XTO all seem to be on the radar of just about everyone, as these stock are often mentioned by analysts on TV, in the print media, and discussed on the blogs. Each also has a relatively/historically high P/E (each over 16, with the exception of Anadarko). Nonetheless, if the 7-8 multiple holds, those stocks levered more to natural gas, such as Chesapeake, could see even higher valuations.

Natural-gas producers, many from Oklahoma and Texas, are converging on a thick wedge of natural gas-bearing rock called the Marcellus Shale, located from West Virginia to Pennsylvania. Chesapeake Energy, Anadarko Petroleum, and EOG Resources are either already drilling, or planning to drill. The find could be significant, with estimates from 1.9 trillion cubic feet to 168 trillion cubic feet. As comparison, the U.S. consumed a little over 23 trillion cubic feet last year. The locals, while not happy about the gold rush invasion from outside companies, are excited about the leasing prices they are receiving, with acre leases increasing from $5 to $2,000 in the last four years.

Tickers: CHK, APC, EOG