Showing posts with label Nouriel Roubini. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nouriel Roubini. Show all posts

The Battle Of The Dr. Doom's

Posted by Bull Bear Trader | 8/12/2009 03:40:00 PM | , , , | 0 comments »

The battle of the Dr. Doom's on CNBC (CNBC Video), between Marc Faber and Nouriel Roubini, was uneventful, but did provide some interesting comments. While Dr. Roubini views are pretty well known, even if he is currently a little less pessimistic, Dr. Faber's views may not be as well known, and are worth mentioning. Some observations from the Faber portion of the interview include the following:

  • There was a bull market in assets from 2002-2007, along with a weak dollar. In 2008, we had the opposite - a strong dollar, with all assets going down except for bonds. Now, in 2009, assets have rallied, especially in emerging markets as the dollar has weakened.
  • For the next couple of months we should see the dollar recover as assets correct downward.
  • The dollar will strengthen not because the U.S. economy is the best, but because it is the least cyclical. As the dollar strengthens, global liquidity will tighten.
  • As liquidity tightens, growth will begin to disappoint, and emerging markets will become vulnerable, especially after being a favorite of momentum investors who may flee the trade.
  • Nonetheless, even with slower economic growth, markets may still go up given that there are a number of worldwide central bankers who are nothing more than money printers and continue to feel the need to intervene when prices go down (except for crude oil).
  • To exit this cycle, we may still need a crisis to cause us to fully change behavior and clean the system. Therefore, a total breakdown of the system is likely ahead of us (even if 1, 5, or 10 years away) since we have not let those who caused the problems fail. We cannot continue to provide bailouts that do not help the average person.
  • Nonetheless, the Fed and other central bankers will most likely leave rates too low for too long, as household deficits continue to increase.
  • Finally, when asked what would have happen if central banks would not have stepped in to stop the credit and market collapse, Faber believes that the market would have dropped more, but the system would be healthier, in part because the debt load on taxpayers would be less.

Nassim Taleb was interviewed on CNBC's Squaw Box Wednesday morning (CNBC Video), along with Nouriel Roubini. Some observations from Taleb include the following (the first one still worth repeating, especially given the recent market moves and short covering, the remaining ideas being essentially repeats from other interviews/columns):

  • Short-term markets mean nothing. They are driven by the marginal buyer/seller.
  • The risk and problems that we had before - debt, poor leadership - are still there.
  • Converting private debt to public debt is just causing more problems.
  • Structural problems have not been addressed.
  • Too much reliance / susceptibility to forecast errors for the recovery, budget, and debt forecast.
  • Policy makers are still not working on the main problems and there cures, just the symptoms.
  • We are continuing to reward those who got us into our current problems.
  • Nouriel Roubini is usually correct, except for wanting to reappoint Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke (comment after some praise - to easy, just cannot help himself).



Nouriel Roubini was recently on CNBC (the video is provided below) discussing his views on the economy, and clarifying his recent comments last week that were interpreted as being more positive than earlier in the year. Some comments/observations from the interview include the following:

  • Roubini still believes the recession will last 24 months, causing it to be over by the end of this year.
  • The recovery will be weak, sub-par, and below trend, with 1% growth for a few years.
  • The "recovery" will feel like a recession, even if growth is positive.
  • The unemployment rate will peak around 11% next year.
  • Including partial employed/unemployed workers, the unemployment rate is over 16%.
  • We have seen the worst, given that the free-fall in the economy is over.
  • Nonetheless, even though we will not have an "L" shaped depression, we will also not have a "V" shaped recovery, and he has worries of a "W" shaped double dip recession.
  • The slow and lower growth are being driven in-part by current debt and spending levels.
  • There is a thin line as to when it is best to exit current monetary policy. This also adds risk.
  • A second stimulus bill is needed by the end of the year (we need to wait until later in the year to let the current stimulus start working).
  • The second stimulus should include more shovel-ready infrastructure projects.
  • If the second stimulus is too small, it will not be effective. If it is too large, the bond market will panic. He believes it should be around $200 billion.
  • He feels that the U.S. will be the first advanced economy to exit the recession. While China and India are seeing growth already, it will be weak until the G3 recover and start helping to drive their economies.
  • Equities, commodities, and credit markets have gone up too far, too fast.
  • There is possible downside surprise regarding marcoeconomic numbers, earnings, credit shocks.
  • The risk in the market is still on the downside. Investors should continue to stay away from risky assets.
  • The market will not test the lows of March (the levels of which were pricing in depression), but could see a sell-off below current levels and the March lows if his forecast of downward surprises in economic data come true (which he still expects to happen).



    Source: CNBC Video