According to the recent TIM (Trade Ideas Monitor) report for the week of November 6-12, 2009, the TIM Sentiment Index (TSI) fell 1.05 points to 54.44, staying within bullish territory (see last week's post and the youDevise website for additional information on the TIM report, a reading above 50 is bullish). The drop in the TSI Worldwide Index was much larger, falling 5.60 points to 51.74, but still staying in bullish territory. Eight of the ten sectors were in bullish territory with the remaining two bearish. Total new long ideas as a percentage of all new ideas sent to investment managers by way of the TIM increased 0.41 points to 73.61%.

As for individual securities in the U.S. and North America, State Street (STT), Apple (AAPL), and Amazon.com (AMZN) were stocks with long broker sentiment, while Family Dollar (FDO), Toll Brothers (TOL), and Ensco International (ESV) had short broker sentiment. In general, the information technology, utilities, and telecommunications services sectors had long broker sentiment, while the materials and consumer discretionary sectors had short broker sentiment.

UBS is projecting that crude oil will have a yearly average of $156 a barrel by the year 2012, with the price rising steadily over the next four years, even though they see oil averaging $115 a barrel this year, about $10 less than the recent highs. This is a reversal from earlier coverage which predicted a pullback in oil prices as demand fell in the face of a potential U.S. recession. UBS has also stressed that it believes the increase in prices are mainly due to demand growth (not met by equal supply growth), rather than speculation.

Who does UBS see as benefiting from this increase in oil prices over the next four years? As to the major oil companies, UBS believes Chevron (CVX) will benefit, in addition to Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Apache (APA), ConocoPhillips (COP), and Exxon Mobil (XOM), all of which have buy recommendations. In addition to the major oil companies, UBS has also initiated coverage of oil service, drilling, and equipment firms. Current buy recommendations include Transocean (RIG), Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO), Noble (NE), Ensco International (ESV), Atwood Oceanics (ATW), and Rowan (RDC).

Of the group, the oil services and equipment analyst at UBS prefers Transocean, a recommendation that is due in part to the recent news of Petrobras locking up 80% of the deep water rigs, while also attempting to extend contracts with Transocean for over three more years (see earlier post). Current daily rates are topping over $600,000 a day for leasing deep water rigs, almost three times the average rate of $219,700 just a little over 6 months ago. A number of analysts are also picking up on this story.