According to the recent TIM (Trade Ideas Monitor) report for the week of October 30-November 5, 2009, the TIM Sentiment Index (TSI) rose 5.65 points to 55.49, moving into bullish territory (see last week's post and the youDevise website for additional information on the TIM report, a reading above 50 is bullish). The TSI Worldwide Index also increased 7.55 points to a bullish 57.34 reading. Nine of the ten sectors were in bullish territory with only one bearish. Total new long ideas as a percentage of all new ideas sent to investment managers by way of the TIM increased 5.64 points to 73.20%.
As for individual securities in the U.S. and North America, Research In Motion (RIMM), US Steel (X), and Bank of America (BAC) were stocks with long broker sentiment, while Wells Fargo (WFC), and AMR Corp (AMR) had short broker sentiment. In general, the consumer discretionary, energy, and materials sectors had long broker sentiment, while the consumer staples had short broker sentiment.
Hedge funds increased their stakes in financial stocks during the second quarter according to the Goldman Sachs Hedge Fund Trend Monitor (WSJ). Specifically, ownership in financials increased 55% from Q1 to Q2, growing to $70 billion - representing 3.7% of the sector's market capitalization. Bank of America (BAC) and JPMorgan (JPM) were some of the more popular financial holdings within hedge funds, with Regions Financial (RF) and Citigroup (C) also becoming new long positions for some funds. While the net short position of financials also rose slightly, 8% to $63 billion, the large increase in long exposure has resulted in hedge funds being net long the financials by the end of Q2 (WSJ). Although hedge fund redemption request have decreased, reducing the need for forced selling, it is unclear if hedge funds on average will maintain their net long positions in financials after the nice run these stocks have made since the March market lows.
Meredith Whitney was recently on CNBC (the video is provided below) discussing the banks and financials. Some observations from the interview include:
- This will be a tactical quarter for the banks.
- She has a bullish call on Goldman Sachs, but a bearish call on financial stocks in general.
- A huge refinance wave will create the "Mother-of-all" mortgage quarters, boosting earnings for the quarter for many banks, even though business in general is not getting better.
- Core earnings numbers may not be very good, but below the line numbers will be good due to all the mortgage activity. This will result in huge moves in tangible book value for the banks, even with unimpressive earnings numbers. These stocks trade on multiples of tangible book.
- A move from $18 billion in incentives to $75 billion in incentives to modify mortgages, with less modification liability, could cause some banks move 15% short-term.
- Mortgage modification numbers will increase logarithmically, causing past dues to become current, and allowing the banks to receive fees for the modifications.
- As a result of the fees and less litigation due to the current legislation, banks may even seek to modify mortgages which have not yet defaulted, or are not yet past due.
- Bank of America (BAC) is the cheapest of the banks, based on tangible book value (excluding Citi).
- Bank solvency has been off the table for a few quarters now, but main street has not been helped by the financial bailouts as much. A lot of refinancing is occurring, but not a lot of new lending. The new legislation and increased risk aversion is actually providing less access to credit.
- The next couple of years will be debt market-focused due to the tsunami of debt issuance needed to pay-off current spending.
- She also mentioned in the discussion (not included in the CNBC online video) that unemployment could reach toward 13%.
Source: CNBC Video
According to the recent TIM (Trade Ideas Monitor) report and the TIM Sentiment Index (TSI), institutional brokers became more bullish over the last five trading days as the TSI increased 12.7% from 51.96 to 58.54 (see previous post or youDevise website for additional information on the TIM report). For the five trading days ending June 25, the number of new long ideas as a percentage of new ideas sent to investment managers increased to 72.55% from 70.92% one week earlier (see last week's post). The intra-week trend was positive. Longs now represent 66.50% of all ideas in June.
As for individual securities in the U.S. and North America, Ashland Inc. (ASH), Bank of America (BAC), and Black & Decker (BDK) were the stocks most recommended as longs by institutional brokers, while Boeing (BA), Century Aluminum (CENX), and Microsoft (MSFT) were recommended as shorts. The information technology, industrial, and energy sectors had increased broker sentiment for the week, while health care had decreased sentiment.
Insiders at Bank of America (BAC) have been taking positions in the stock over the last few weeks. This includes the CEO Ken Lewis, former President John Thain, and various directors. As seen in the chart below, the stock, while still in a steep down trend, has seen an increase in volume over the last month, and has "rallied" off its recent 52-week low of $3.77 (but still down tremendously from its 52-week high of $43.60).
Source: Bigcharts.comFor the first time since 1993, credit card companies were unable to sell bonds backed by customer payments (see Bloomberg article). Top-rated credit card-backed securities maturing in three years are selling at spreads of 475 basis points over Libor, compared to a spread of only 50 basis points less than a year ago. Given higher unemployment, leading to potentially higher credit card use and an inability to pay, lenders are expecting higher default rates for 2009. American Express is already accessing the Fed commercial facility program, as well as cutting 10 percent of its work force. Bank of America, JPMorgan, and Citigroup all rely on the debt market to fund their credit card portfolios, and could also subsequently be impacted by higher spreads and lower liquidity.
