While the effects of government bailouts and spending is still to be determined, Treasury Security Geithner does seem to be responsible for stimulating at least one industry - the exchanges. Since the announcement of his intent to shift more over-the-counter derivative trading onto the exchanges, the share price for the CME Group is up 27 percent, while the share price of Deutsche Borse (owner of the Eurex derivative exchange) is right behind, up 21 percent (see Financial Times article).

CME Group Daily Chart (1 year)
Source: Big Charts

In addition to the exchanges being able to trade more credit derivative products, such as credit default swaps, massive stimulus spending will also make it likely that demand will increase for interest rate products that are traded on the futures exchanges. In particular, the CME should do well given its trading in the popular Eurodollar contract. Yet, all is not rosy, as the introduction of new multilateral trading facilities will also require many of the existing exchanges to modify the way they currently do business, possibly also forcing a cut in fees. The "final" proposed regulations will also have to be carefully examined. For instance, if CDS trading is limited to only those with a direct interest, as opposed to third party speculators, then liquidity will be a fraction of what it is expected, offering less benefit to the exchanges. If, on the other hand, regulations are less restrictive, which seems necessary in order to maintain some type of relatively efficient and liquid market, then the exchanges will certainly benefit from the increased volume, even with a slight reductions in fees. Any rebound in the economy, or continuation of the current new bull / existing bear market rally will also have investors once again dreaming of $700 CME quotes. Let's hope so. After all, an increase in trading and retail participation in the market would certainly be good for more stocks than just the CME Group.

The Financial Times is reporting how individual retail investment in U.S. equities has fallen to record lows (see article). This recent data highlights not only the nervousness of retail investors, but also illustrates the growing importance of institutional investors. By the end of 2006, retail investors owned 34 percent of all shares and 24 percent of the stock of the top 1,000 companies. These record low numbers are in contrast to when retail investors owned 94 percent of all stocks in 1950 and 63 percent in 1980. As comparison, institutions owned 76 percent of the shares in the biggest 1,000 companies in 2006, up from 61 percent in 2000.

Of course, one way to have the overall level of retail invest be down is for the large and rich retail investors to bail out of the market. A recent HSBC report (see Yahoo article) finds that the world's wealthiest people are moving their money out of stocks and bonds and into cash. As mentioned by Peter Braunwalder, chief executive of HSBC Private Bank:

"The first half of 2008 has seen a notable change in client expectations and investment choices. Faced with inflation worries, volatile asset prices and sudden changes in exchange rates, a majority of investors have reduced their transaction volumes in equities, bonds, and structured products."

Apparently, such movement into cash is greatest for clients from Asia, where their tolerance for derivatives and structure vehicles has decreased significantly as counterparty risks and volatility has increased. Given recent moves by the Fed and other central banks to increase liquidity in the wake of the credit crisis, some worry how this liquidity will eventually be removed from the market, and worry that interest rates will rise as a result.

Apparently, even large sovereign wealth funds may also be having second thoughts, or are at least re-evaluating how they deploy their ever increasing capital. An article from Asian Investor discusses how sovereign wealth funds, with their own mixed investment results allocating capital to struggling financial institutions, may now be looking for broad diversification, which will ultimately increase the amount of passive investments they make.

None of this really seems to be good news for the banks or the exchanges. As evidence of further weakening, derivative trades on the exchanges fell 13% in the second quarter (see Bloomberg article). This weakening comes as more exchanges enter the fray, causing the London Stock Exchange to cut fees as it deals with new competitors (see Financial Times article). The IPO market has also suffered recently (see Wall Street Journal article, Financial Times article). Only 25 companies priced their stock IPOs somewhere in the world in August, the lowest number of deals since Dealogic began tracking them in 1995.

Maybe even more troublesome than the reduced number of IPOs is the increased numbers of delistings that are also putting pressure on the exchanges. Year-to-date more companies have been delisted from the Nasdaq Stock Market than a year ago (see Financial Week article). To a lesser extent, NYSE listing are also up as companies fail to meet minimum listing requirements. So far, more Nasdaq-listed companies have been delisted for non-compliance this year than in the previous two years. As of August 7, 54 stocks were delisted. As comparison, only 48 total companies were delisted last year, with 52 delistings in 2006. For the NYSE, 11 companies were delisted as of July 1 of this year. This compares to 21 last year and 14 in 2006.

Along with a lower number of IPOs, the lower number of listings are affecting the profitability of the exchanges which derive up to 15% of their overall revenue from listing fees. While there have been more delistings on the Nasdaq, in part since smaller companies are more vulnerable during difficult times, companies pay much less to be on the Nasdaq (around $27,500 a year), so the loss of listing fees is not as severe. On the other hand, the NYSE will lose around $878,000 in annual revenue from IndyBank and Bear Stearns alone. When looking at the stock performance, the NYSE Euronext (NYX) stock has suffered over the last year and is right around its 52 week low near $40 per share. The CME Group (CME) has bounced slightly from 52 week lows near $300 a share to move near $340 a share, but is still struggling. On the other hand, the Nasdaq OMX Group (NDAQ) has recover to $32 a share after bottoming out around $24 a share in early July. The exchanges certainly have more issues to worry about than just delistings, and their stocks reflect this, but the continued fallout of the credit crisis is certainly continuing to find its way into more areas than the obvious players.

As reported at the Financial Times and the WSJ, discussions have progress to the point that larger banks and dealers should have a central clearing house for credit derivatives by later this fall. The market for credit derivatives is currently near $62 trillion in notional value after being less than $5 trillion as little as five years ago. The goal of the clearinghouse will be to reduce the systemic risk that results from inefficient trading and uncertain counterparty exposure, both of which have increased as the market expanded. Automated trade-matching and electronic processing in other OTC derivatives market was also discussed. Credit derivatives in particular have caused concern as their rapid grown has made it more difficult to both track and measure the exact level of exposure being taken.

Recent credit problems have highlighted the need to better understand counterparty exposure. A central clearing house for credit derivatives should help in this area given that the clearing house will take the risk of a market participant's failure. Any failure would then be absorbed by the clearing house members, reducing the need for the Federal Reserve or Treasury to get involved, and possibly preventing the type of failure that was experienced with Bear Stearns. Like other clearing houses, trades are also likely to be better scrutinized when made, such as making sure that margin requirements are enforced and trades are verified and recorded.

To date the levels of electronic derivative trading in the various markets has been mixed. Currently, about 90% of credit derivatives are traded electronically. The interest-rate derivatives market, which is larger and potentially more worrisome, has also increased electronic trading and now sits at about half of all trades. Equity derivatives trading is bringing up the rear with only about one quarter of all trades executed electronically. Depending on the success of the credit derivative clearing house, plans could be expanded to also include the equity and interest rate markets.

One current hitch for the credit derivative clearing house is the need to make sure that the entire CDS market is integrated and electronic. To facilitate the move, dealers have agreed to reduce the total value of outstanding CDS trades, and to help sort out corporate defaults by incorporating a cash settlement mechanism into CDS documentation. Of note is that the market in many cases would still be private, but more centralized.

Although the details of the clearing house are still being worked out, such as what exactly the dealers and exchanges will control, any move is certain to benefit the exchanges as they will now have a direct link to the lucrative CDS market, while the large investment banks that currently control the credit derivative market will need to start sharing some of the billions of dollars of revenue. For some banks, this line of revenue has been significant. Companies that my be positively impacted include the CME Group (CME) and NYSE Euronext (NYX). Investment banks that may be negatively impacted, at least with regard to losing some of their current credit derivative revenue stream, include Deutsche Bank (DB), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Morgan Stanley (MS).

The exchanges have long been considered to be printing presses for money. As volume has increased in recent years, the presses have been rolling along. Today the Wall Street Journal discusses the impact that the recent Treasury proposal (see previous post) may have on their ability to continue printing money. Paulson was apparently not happy when dealing with multiple regulatory bodies while at Goldman, so it makes sense that he would want to "streamline" things. Of course, as mentioned in a previous post, the best laid plans, especially with regard to regulation ........... well, you get the point.

Some exchanges, such as the NYSE that are involved in a number of products, could possibly see some benefit. Others, like the futures exchanges (such as the CME Group), may not, and will now have to deal with a larger regulator. The existing relationship the futures exchanges have with the CFTC will not be as strong. This may be good for the markets, but not necessarily good for a futures exchange that has enjoyed quick approval of new products. Of real concern for the futures exchanges is the impact on their clearing operations, another large profit center. Opening up the clearing operations may allow for more competition and lower prices. This is certainly not something these exchanges, or their investors, would welcome. On the other hand, the NYSE, which is involved in numerous products and is increasing its international expansion, should find working with one agency a potential benefit.

It will be interesting today to see if the CME group and NYMEX trade down on the news, and for how long. Given the amount of approval needed, any move may be short-lived. (Update Noon Central: Looks like both CME and NMX are down about 1.5-2%. Time will tell if the moves are short-lived. Paulson is already saying it will take a few years.)

Tickers: CME, NYX, NMX