While hedge fund returns have been taking a beating lately, the talk of the demise of hedge funds is probably a little over done and premature. While there has been $72.5 billion in outflows, this represents less than 4 percent of the average mid-year industry volumes (see Wealth Bulletin article). Also, while the industry has seen a number of funds close up shop, the numbers have "only" decreased from 7,601 to 7,299. As discussed in this blog a number of weeks ago (see previous post), the fallout seems to be impacting smaller funds more that larger, more established funds. In fact, many of the larger funds - which are either more diversified or have a star manager - are seen as being able to take advantage of the shifting resources and capital.

Even with fewer funds failing than originally expected (yes, these are just preliminary numbers), funds that stay in business will still find that they cannot operate as usual. For starters, funds will need to better match redemption rules with strategy. Some funds are illiquid by design based on the strategy being used. While trying to lock up funds until returns are realized (as with private equity) is probably not feasible, funds will need to better insure that redemption request rules take strategy into consideration. The use of leverage will also no doubt be reduced for many funds, which will also affect returns going forward. Finally, the popular 2-20 fee structure will also come under assault. Not only does the existing compensation structure seem excessive given recent performance (and future lower returns in the wake of lower leverage), fee concessions will be necessary as an incentive for agreeing to longer lock-up periods. In the end, expectations on both sides may need to be scaled down a little.

Hedge Fund Research's Global Hedge Fund Index was down 3.04 percent in November, after a drop of 9.26 percent in October (see FIN Alternatives article). That brings the index down 22.3% YTD through November. Continued poor performance has increased redemption requests, causing an increasing number of hedge funds to block investors from redeeming shares (see NY Times article). The increased addition of illiquid investments over the years (such as real estate and private equity) has caused many funds to start considering a new model that would require longer lock-up times for lower fees. High-water marks, which would force some under-performing funds to earn back 25 percent or more before taking profit fees, will cause additional funds to close, although others insist they will take the high road and not close until they are profitable again.

As of the end of last week, approximately 100 hedge funds have placed restrictions on withdraws, in what is becoming a financial roach motel where investors can check in, but they cannot check out (see Bloomberg article). The increased use of gates has even spread to some of the previous stars of the industry, such as Fortress Investment Group, Tudor Investment Corp., and D.E. Shaw & Company (see WSJ article). Furthermore, the problems are even worse for those funds investing in emerging markets, which continue to under-perform and are down an additional 1.41% on average in November (see Bloomberg article).

Finally, even with new gating restrictions, some hedge funds are also being forced to renegotiate borrowing terms with their prime brokerage lenders as losses and redemption requests increase (see Financial Times article). Many prime brokers are also seeing this as an opportunity to drop clients or renegotiate terms that were originally in favor of the large hedge funds who previously had bargaining power. No doubt many large investors with liquidity will be able to throw their weight around in a similar way as they begin renegotiating lower fee structures in return for longer lockup periods.

Surprise, surprise. A GAO audit found that more oversight is needed for the $700 billion TARP bailout package (see CNN Money article). Apparently, as a result of lack of oversight, those receiving billions in funds have not been using the money as originally intended. Not only is it amazing that this is a surprise, but it is interesting how as the amount of money increases, the level of monitoring seems to go down.

Time to bailout alternative energy (see Spiegel Online article). Cheaper crude oil is decreasing the demand for clean and efficient energy. The credit crisis is also making it difficult for new renewable energy companies to get the capital they need to expand and continue daily operations. Spain and Germany are already offering incentives, and the European Commission announced a $252 billion recovery plan that included targeted investments for carbon reduction. President-elect Obama is also expected to use some of the $700 billion stimulus package on eco-businesses.

In an effort to survive the current credit crisis, hedge funds are lengthening lockup times in order to reduce the number of redemption requests (see Bloomberg article). In return, and in an attempt to raise more capital, some of the very same hedge funds are lowering management fees from 2 to 1 percent, and further lowering performance fees from 20 to 15 percent, or even as low as 10 percent in some instances.

Goldman Sachs, still adjusting to its new role as a bank holding company, is considering online banking (see WSJ article). The move in being done in part to help increase its deposit base. While a lower-margin business, the increased deposit base will allow Goldman to have a more stable capital base during difficult market conditions, one of the main reasons for changing its status to a bank-holding company.

According to information from the Preqin Global Institutional Review (by way of an Albourne Village post), institutional investors plan to continue allocating capital to hedge funds. A total of 46.6 percent still have a positive long-term view of hedge funds, while 67.8 percent have an unfilled long-term target allocation to hedge funds. A total of 75 percent reported that while hedge fund returns had fallen short of original expectations, 53 percent were satisfied with returns (compared to the market in general, I assume). Of interest in the post was the comment that while institutional investors were delaying making new investments with hedge funds, few were redeeming their original investments. Whether this means redemption requests will slow down, or whether the speculation about redemption requests driving the recent sell-offs were overblown (by many, including myself), is unknown.

A Financial Times blog post at Alphaville reports how 63 percent of respondents believe that the hedge fund deleveraging process is about half over (see Bloomberg article as well). To date, leverage has fallen to 142 percent of AUM, down from 175 percent in 2006 and 2007. A majority of respondents also believe that redemption requests are at least half over, with the process finishing up early next year, probably in the first quarter. Of interest is how cash now represents approximately 31 percent of total assets, compared to just 7 percent over the last few years. As we have discussed before (see previous post), there is an expectation that once the market turns, and redemption request slow down or stall, the amount of capital that could be deployed back into the market could spark a significant rally. Empirical estimates have between $650 and $700 billion withdrawn from hedge funds, and another $325 to $350 billion from mutual funds (see DowJones Financial News Online article). This amount of funds represents about 6.5-7 percent of the capitalization of the US equity market. Even just a small portion of such capital hitting the market could produce a relief rally that would be jaw-dropping.

An article in Pensions & Investments reports data from Hedge Fund Research showing that hedge fund industry assets fell by $156 billion in October, with $115 billion from performance-related losses, and another $41 billion from net redemptions. Investors withdrew $22 billion in October alone. Aren't redemptions, at least those above normal withdraws, due to performance-related issues? Then again, redemptions are adding to the poor performance in what is becoming a "chicken or the egg" downward spiral. I guess it does not really matter which came first at this point. We are still left with a market that has laid an egg, and investors too chicken to buy (sorry, I could not resist). The quote of the day from the article: "HFR analysts attributed the outflows to investor dissatisfaction with under performance." Yes, it is true. Markets that are cut in half have a way of generating dissatisfaction.

Just about every day we get a new prediction / forecast of where the hedge fund industry is headed. Now Citigroup is reporting that total hedge fund assets may fall to around $1 trillion by the middle of next year (see Bloomberg article). This figure would represent a decline of nearly 50 percent from peak levels. Of possibly even more interest in the report is how hedge funds are believed to have raised cash equivalent to around 40 percent of assets in anticipation of both known and unknown (but expected) redemption requests. As posted yesterday (see post), this cash could be adding to daily volatility as funds allocate it on a short-term basis while waiting for redemption requests to slow. While this may be contributing to market volatility in the short-term, there is also an expectation that once this money (forecast to approach $1 trillion) does get deployed in to longer-term investments, it could be a strong catalyst for driving the market higher. Unfortunately, many investors are following the belief that it is still "too late to sell, but too soon to buy." Once hedge funds start getting back into the market in earnest, the move could be both quick and significant enough to begin thinking it is "too late to buy." Of course, whether that happens tomorrow or late next year is just a guess at this point. Daily rallies of over 5 percent that have failed to hold have certainly not engender any extra confidence for traders or investors.

There is an interesting Forbes article that discusses the issue of whether hedge fund selling as a result of redemption notices has been contributing to market volatility (see previous posts here, here, here, and here, on the subject). The article notes that while last Saturday was the 45 day period before the end of the year that is often the one and a half month last chance opportunity to request withdraw of funds as required by some hedge funds, recent volatility cannot be blamed entirely on the forced selling of hedge funds before this date. Many funds have shorter notices, while for some the required notification period is longer. Furthermore, any volatility that was experienced may have been due more to the self-fulfilling prophecy that often follows other calendar events, such as those experienced with the January Effect, option expiration dates, and end of month/quarter trading. Instead, analysts expect that it is more likely hedge funds will systematically continue to sell as needed over the next 12 months in order to meet requests.

Of interest is that many funds have been accumulating cash, with managers eager to deploy funds into a market that some managers feel is depressed and laden with attractive values. While funds are nervous about locking up money in longer-term and possibly illiquid investments, many are also unwilling to simply sit on the cash. As a result, some are engaging in more short-term trading, both from the buy and sell sides, that ironically may be contributing to the volatility being blamed solely on redemption requests. Furthermore, there is an expectation that once redemption requests slow down to normal levels, much of this money will quickly find its way back into the market, generating a rally that could be as large as the one recently seen on the downside, albeit over a longer time frame. Of course, predicting the timing of such a move is difficult, but once previously illiquid instruments such as complex debt securities, private equity, and thinly traded companies start to increase on higher level of trading volume, the market may start seeing the beginning of hedge funds once again throwing their weight, and capital, back into the market.

Selling by hedge funds is still putting pressure on the market (see WSJ article). As we have discussed over the last month (see posts here and here), many redemption requests by hedge fund investors are now meeting their waiting periods, causing many funds to sell assets in order to raise cash. As quoted by Gregory Horn, president of Persimmon Capital Management:

"In mid-October, redemption levels were in the 5% range but all of a sudden now it's cranking up to as high as 25% for some funds."

Certainly not good news for hedge funds, but maybe even worse news for the market. With continued forced selling, it is unlikely the market will quit trying to find a bottom. Hedge funds will continue to sell every rally, increasing volatility. As long as the VIX continues to spike and stay at elevated levels, and we continue to see the "punch-in-the-stomach" late day sell-offs after nice rallies (both of which I suspect are indications of further hedge funds selling), we will continue to be in a volatile holding pattern between 850 and 1,000 on the S&P. Unfortunately, it is difficult to know exactly when the selling will quit, as the selling and redemption requests are tied together in what is becoming a volatile catch-22 pattern that is feeding upon itself. The other day I heard an analysts say it was "too late to sell, but too soon to buy." Until hedge fund investors believe the former, it is unlikely any investors will quit believing the latter.