Showing posts with label Bull Market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bull Market. Show all posts

Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. equity strategist at Citigroup, presented his bullish perspective on CNBC Thursday (see CNBC article).




Source: CNBC Video

Some points from the Levkovich interview include:
  • Production rates have to pick-up, and not because final demand is picking-up, but because inventory levels are so low.
  • Earnings are a function of production. Top-line growth will pick-up. This will cause the second half GDP to be higher.
  • Cost controls were not a one quarter phenomenon, but will provide even more operating leverage to the upside going forward.
  • Worries of lower consumer spending hurting GDP are overblown. Over the last 30 years nearly all of the growth of consumer spending as a percent of GDP has come from health care expenditures. It is an illusion that we have always had isolated increased spending. When spending did increase, so did wealth. Debt increased $6 trillion, but assets increase $24 trillion over the same time frame.
  • While we will see sales growth this year (which is counter to conventional wisdom), 2010 estimates that are calling for a 22% gain in earnings might be a little high.
  • Finally, while there is a possibility of a market correction later in the year, an overshoot to 1,100 on the S&P 500 is very plausible. Positive moves in the market will be supported by the strength of Q2 earnings and the probability of second half earnings power.

Mark Axelowitz, director of wealth management at Morgan Stanley Smith Barney, and adviser to very high net worth individuals, was recently on CNBC's Fast Money program discussing trends that he has noticed among ultra high net worth individuals (see CNBC article).




Source: CNBC Video

Just as many investors are jumping back into stocks, essentially afraid that they may have missed the recent rising market, ultra high new worth individuals are more cautious, and appear to be worried about inflation, the dollar, and of course, taxes. This macro-economic perspective has kept the rich from chasing the recent rally, and instead has them investing heavily in fixed income instead of equities as they shy away from diving into the market with both feet. The rich stay rich for a reason. Maybe it is time to pay attention.

Steeping Yield Curve Signaling A Bull Market

Posted by Bull Bear Trader | 5/02/2008 08:42:00 PM | , , | 0 comments »

There is an interesting post at the Trader's Narrative blog (click on the post title for the link). It is worth a read. In a nutshell, we currently have a steep yield curve, and what this usually signals is that the economy is about to speed up its growth, that the end of any recession/slowdown is near, and that a major economic expansion is close.