Daniel Alpert of Westwood Capital and Jerry Webman of Oppenheimer Funds were recently on CNBC discussing the credit markets. Alpert mentioned that while the panic has left the market, and many banks are doing well due to widening credit spreads, the spreads are wide in-part since the assets on which many of the loans are made are still underwater. This gives room for some concern. Alpert also believes that while the recent funding for CIT was a positive, a bankruptcy at CIT is still about 50-50 given that their collateral will be difficult to collect upon. Alpert also still has some worry as to whether there will be enough capital available in the markets and banking system to absorb the level of losses that will still need to be taken.

Source: CNBC Video

Webman was a little more encouraging and believes that it is a positive that private funding was available for CIT. Nonetheless, credit spreads in the investment grade area are still pricing in defaults and poor recoveries at 4-5 times the historical averages, signaling that people are still cautious. Webman did mention one good trend that is showing up - people are breaking apart the "toxic" assets into their good and bad component parts, with the good assets being put back into less toxic and less complicated assets. This is good since banks are trying to become more capital transparent, which will allow them to make more loans of the type that CIT made. This makes a CIT-type of failure less difficult to deal with, and may explain the somewhat muted market reaction. Webman also believes that the latest earnings news is illustrating a gradual rebuilding of economic momentum, and strength in many parts of the financial world. With the current playing field, the big players will continue to be able to make money, even without the extreme levels of leveraged that were observed in the past.

It turns out that Lehman Brothers Holdings has negotiated the return of knickknacks that were sent to Barclays by mistake (see Bloomberg article). The items are being returned so they can be sold, with the proceeds being used to pay creditors, which currently have about $200 billion in unsecured liabilities. Items for possible sale include:

"1,630 green canvas duffle bags with Lehman ribbon, 353 green compact golf umbrellas, 75 Waterford Marquis Treviso crystal clocks, 682 white Lehman coffee mugs, 130 Swiss Army pens, an English beechwood-lined sterling silver box from 1902, 200 Lehman conference pens, 12 pairs of Links of London cufflinks, 24 Screwpull wine openers inscribed “LB,’ 24 Titleist PRO VI golf balls inscribed “LB,” 30 girl Teddy Bears, 18 large, ivory womens’ F&G stretch snap shirts and one Tiffany shooting star."

For just about $62,500,000 per item, you can help eliminate this debt, and help put this bankruptcy behind all of us. And look on the bright side: at least you get an umbrella or coffee mug in return. Let the bidding begin!

While the recent bankruptcies and potential failures have generated concern for both Wall Street and Main Street, and the federal bailouts have offered some hope (as well as concern), the root cause of the problem - housing - is still a mess (see Reuters article). As mentioned by Wilbur Ross, the current federal plans do not really address the housing problem. In fact, while blame is being assigning to banks and the federal government, the blame should also be shared by the American consumer who for years has been living above their means. As mentioned by Ross: "In one sense, the American consumer is the victim; but on the other hand, the perpetrator of it." So the worry is that while the current bailouts may help to stabilize the market, the underlying housing problem will still keep the economy from growing anytime soon, with some analysts expecting the problem to carry into 2009 and possibly beyond, as excess housing inventory continues to be drained from the system.