Bailouts and Commodity Prices

Posted by Bull Bear Trader | 9/26/2008 03:43:00 PM | , | 0 comments »

As the country and the financial markets struggle to both understand and swallow the need for a $700 billion bailout of the financial system, the impact of using taxpayer money to fund such a bailout could have repercussions beyond the credit markets. The money will have to come from somewhere, i.e., taxes and/or deficit spending. As such, the potential flooding of the economy with money, and a further possible lowering of interest rates, could create increases in inflation. While this will affect nearly all areas of the economy, it could once again provide a catalyst for raising energy and commodity prices. In fact, just recently Barclays predicted that commodities will in fact revive their sharp and historic correction over the summer, and are simply in a normal correction stage rather than a change in demand (see Bloomberg article). If it is true that demand will stay strong, or at least will not collapse due to a global slowdown, any increase in deficit spending, lowering of interest rates, and further devaluation of the dollar could certainly be bullish for commodity prices. But of course, this depends on the strength of the global economy, which will depend to some degree on the handling of the credit crisis - in yet another illustration of the myth of decoupling.