"Profit from your knowledge!"
The Bull Bear Trader discusses market events and news with an interest in understanding risk and return in both bull and bear markets. Discussion topics include trading and hedging strategies, derivatives, risk management, hedge funds, quantitative finance, the energy and commodity markets, and private equity, as well as an occasional investment opinion.
Friday, March 28, 2008
Commodity Spot and Futures Not Converging at Expiration
As reported at the NY Times, the futures contracts for corn, wheat and soybeans have expired at a price that was higher than that day’s cash spot price, often much higher. Both the exchanges and academics studying the matter are confused - but have theories, of course. Some explain "shocks to the system", such as larger food demand and uncertainty regarding commodity supplies. Others blame new players in the booming commodities markets: hedge funds, pension funds, and index funds. The contracts themselves are also being blamed, causing some to suggest that everything be settled based on a cash index. Ironically, arbitragers have not stepped in, at least not to the point of correcting inefficiencies. Odd indeed.
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